Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
